this post was submitted on 08 Dec 2024
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Image is of Assad and his family.


After less than two weeks of retreating with few shots fired and little resistance, the SAA has retreated into, well, a state of non-existence. This thereby ends a conflict that has been simmering for over a decade. With the end of this conflict, another begins: the carving up of what used to be Syria between Israel and Turkey, with perhaps the odd Syrian faction getting a rump state here and there. Both Israel and Turkey have begun military operations, with Israel working on expanding their territory in Syria and bombing military bases to ensure as little resistance as possible.

Israeli success in Syria is interesting to contrast against their failures in Gaza and Lebanon. A short time ago, Israel failed to make significant territorial progress in Lebanon due to Hezbollah's resistance despite the heavy hits they had recently taken, and was forced into a ceasefire with little to show for the manpower and equipment lost and the settlers displaced. The war with Lebanon was fast, but still slow enough to allow a degree of analysis and prediction. In contrast, the sheer speed of Syria's collapse has made analysis near-impossible beyond obvious statements like "this is bad" and "Assad is fucking up"; by the time a major Syrian city had fallen, you barely had time to digest the implications before the next one was under threat.

There is still too much that we don't know about the potential responses (and non-responses) of other countries in the region - Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, and Russia, for example. I think that this week and the next will see a lot of statements made by various parties and an elucidation of how the conflict will progress. The only thing that seems clear is that we are in the next stage of the conflict, and perhaps have been, in retrospect, since Nasrallah's assassination. This stage has been and will be far more chaotic as the damage to Israel compounds and they are willing to take greater and greater risks to stay in power. It will also involve Israel causing destruction all throughout the region, rather than mostly localizing it in Gaza and southern Lebanon. Successful gambles like with Syria may or may not outweigh the unsuccessful ones like with Lebanon. This is a similar road to the one apartheid South Africa took, but there are also too many differences to say if the destination will be the same.

What is certain is that Assad's time in power can be summarized as a failure, both to be an effective leader and to create positive economic conditions. His policies were actively harmful to internal stability for no real payoff and by the end, all goodwill had been fully depleted. By the end, the SAA did not fight back; not because of some wunderwaffen on the side of HST, but because there was nothing to fight for, and internal cohesion rapidly disintegrated.


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Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] Chickpeas@hexbear.net 36 points 5 months ago (3 children)

Assad was so afraid of Israel defeating Syria militarily that he eventually let Israel blow up all of the country's military hardware without resistance. If America doesn't stay in Syria forever, IS is going to sweep through half of the country.

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[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 36 points 5 months ago (2 children)

General Braga Netto, the mastermind behind coup attempts against Lula da Silva, and possibly his own ally Jair Bolsonaro, is arrested in Rio de Janeiro. General Braga Netto [is the first four-star general to be arrested in Brazil's history and will be held at the Eastern Military Command. He will answer for:

  • Criminal association, aggravated by being a civil servant and taking advantage of his position.
  • Abolition of the democratic rule of law (coup d'état)
  • Attempting to depose by serious threat to constituted power

If sentenced to the maximum sentence, Braga Netto could be imprisoned for 33 years. The general was arrested today by the PF after complaints from Mauro Cid during his testimony in which he claimed that Braga Netto was coercing him and his father. General Braga Netto was arrested for coercion and obstruction of justice.

During Mauro Cid's testimony, the lieutenant colonel said that Braga Netto kept the cash to finance the coup plan in a wine container. Cid also said that Bolsonaro received daily reports from Braga Netto on the progress of the “Yellow Green Dagger” coup plot. It was said that after Mauro Cid's first interrogation, Braga Netto questioned Mauro Cid and forced him to practice his answers to try to get Braga Netto off the hook.

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[–] plinky@hexbear.net 36 points 5 months ago

frenchies got new prime minister from the democrats (sic) party

[–] dkr567@hexbear.net 35 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago) (1 children)

I don't know if videos are allowed here but a summary of the very insane coup d'etat in ROK and some wild ass update.

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[–] plinky@hexbear.net 35 points 5 months ago

In the spirit of general dumbness of non-american aligned porkies: lukashenko-tired will also manage to fuck up and get hts-ed by ukrainian army.

[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 35 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago) (3 children)

President Lula da Silva has surgery after tests showed an intracranial hemorrhage resulting from the domestic accident he suffered in October. Doctors say that the surgery was successful and the president is recovering in the ICU of the Sírio Libanês hospital in São Paulo, with no discharge forecast.

President Lula began to report discomfort to his team in the early afternoon of Monday (9). As a result of the discomfort, his schedule was altered, with dispatches ending at 5:30pm, after a meeting with the presidents of the Congress and the Senate.

At around 6pm, Lula was taken to the Sírio-Libanês hospital in Brasília, where he underwent an imaging examination of his head.

The medical team found that there had been an increase in the amount of intracranial fluid - a possibility that had been monitored since the fall he suffered in October

More infomation about this later, probably it went all well and President Lula is fine.

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[–] jack@hexbear.net 35 points 5 months ago (1 children)
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[–] Torenico@hexbear.net 35 points 5 months ago (1 children)

Assad Must Go to the Polls hillgasm

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[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 35 points 5 months ago

Paraguay Stablish Embassy in Israel Breaking International Consensus - Telesur English

Article

The decision not only represents a change of diplomatic headquarters, but also a political declaration with profound implications.

Paraguayan President Santiago Peña inaugurated the Paraguayan embassy in Jerusalem, a decision that breaks with international consensus and positions the South American nation in a complex geopolitical scenario, taking into account the complex situation in the Middle East.

The ceremony, held on Tuesday in the Israeli capital, not only represents a change of diplomatic headquarters, but also a political declaration with profound implications. Peña ratified Jerusalem as the «eternal capital of Israel», challenging the positions of most countries that do not officially recognize this status.

Currently, only five nations maintain embassies in Jerusalem: the United States, Guatemala, Honduras, Kosovo and Papua New Guinea. With this decision, Paraguay joins this group in an international context highly polarized by the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Honduras changed that some years ago.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly celebrated this endorsement, noting that «there are many who turn their backs», while Israeli President Isaac Herzog stressed the symbolic significance of the gesture, especially after «an extremely difficult year» for Israel.

This diplomatic movement has its roots in a previous attempt in 2018, when Paraguay initially moved its embassy and then reversed. The current administration not only reiterates its determination, but it does so with a discourse that emphasizes «solidarity and fraternity».

President Peña did not skimp on clear definitions, referring to Hamas as «criminals» and marking a position that distances itself significantly from the traditional Latin American neutrality in conflicts of the Middle East.

While Israel celebrates this support from Paraguay, the European allies continue to be cautious, resisting actions that could be interpreted as violating historic UN resolutions on the status of Jerusalem.

The big question that opens up is how Paraguay will sustain this positioning in an international arena increasingly multipolar, where diplomatic alliances require a delicate balance between principles, economic interests and geopolitical projection.

The inauguration of this embassy is a declaration of principles that could reshape Paraguay’s relations on the international, and even more so Latin American stage.

[–] operacion_ogro@hexbear.net 35 points 5 months ago (3 children)

I don't know anything about the Kurds but I just saw a highly upvoted post on some subreddit like r/oldschoolcool that featured Kurdish "fighters," I just assume the US State Dept's propaganda machine is thrumming behind the scenes

[–] oscardejarjayes@hexbear.net 35 points 5 months ago

tbh, even though they're US backed, the SDF is probably the closest thing to "good guys" in Syria. They've got a fairly cool political system, they fight Turkey (a NATO member), and commit relatively few war crimes. They did a lot more working with the SAA than they did working with rebel groups. And there aren't really many "axis of resistance" forces in Syria anymore, and even if there were, the SDF is largely out of the way of the supply to Hezbollah.

All the "pro-rebel" and anti-immigrant posts are a lot more worrying.

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[–] Evilphd666@hexbear.net 35 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago) (1 children)

just-a-theory Going off of the most fucked up thing is usually conservative to reality....

What if Erdoğan, in his Islamic Caliphate fever dreams, did not assist Palestine because of assurances that were made by isntrael and amerikkka to topple must-go?

Assad knowing this and the disjointed broken unity when unity mattered knew he was checkmated when half The Resistance was working for The Assistance?

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