this post was submitted on 08 Dec 2024
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Image is of Assad and his family.


After less than two weeks of retreating with few shots fired and little resistance, the SAA has retreated into, well, a state of non-existence. This thereby ends a conflict that has been simmering for over a decade. With the end of this conflict, another begins: the carving up of what used to be Syria between Israel and Turkey, with perhaps the odd Syrian faction getting a rump state here and there. Both Israel and Turkey have begun military operations, with Israel working on expanding their territory in Syria and bombing military bases to ensure as little resistance as possible.

Israeli success in Syria is interesting to contrast against their failures in Gaza and Lebanon. A short time ago, Israel failed to make significant territorial progress in Lebanon due to Hezbollah's resistance despite the heavy hits they had recently taken, and was forced into a ceasefire with little to show for the manpower and equipment lost and the settlers displaced. The war with Lebanon was fast, but still slow enough to allow a degree of analysis and prediction. In contrast, the sheer speed of Syria's collapse has made analysis near-impossible beyond obvious statements like "this is bad" and "Assad is fucking up"; by the time a major Syrian city had fallen, you barely had time to digest the implications before the next one was under threat.

There is still too much that we don't know about the potential responses (and non-responses) of other countries in the region - Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, and Russia, for example. I think that this week and the next will see a lot of statements made by various parties and an elucidation of how the conflict will progress. The only thing that seems clear is that we are in the next stage of the conflict, and perhaps have been, in retrospect, since Nasrallah's assassination. This stage has been and will be far more chaotic as the damage to Israel compounds and they are willing to take greater and greater risks to stay in power. It will also involve Israel causing destruction all throughout the region, rather than mostly localizing it in Gaza and southern Lebanon. Successful gambles like with Syria may or may not outweigh the unsuccessful ones like with Lebanon. This is a similar road to the one apartheid South Africa took, but there are also too many differences to say if the destination will be the same.

What is certain is that Assad's time in power can be summarized as a failure, both to be an effective leader and to create positive economic conditions. His policies were actively harmful to internal stability for no real payoff and by the end, all goodwill had been fully depleted. By the end, the SAA did not fight back; not because of some wunderwaffen on the side of HST, but because there was nothing to fight for, and internal cohesion rapidly disintegrated.


Please check out the HexAtlas!

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Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] sempersigh@hexbear.net 38 points 7 months ago* (last edited 7 months ago) (4 children)

https://archive.is/l9I8t

Wall Street’s complex debt bonanza hits fastest pace since 2007

Banks sell bonds backed by revenues from chicken wings, music catalogues and oil wells

Investors’ “relentless” appetite for juicy returns has triggered the biggest boom on Wall Street in complex financial products since the lead-up to the global financial crisis in 2007. The global volume of structured finance transactions has hit $380bn this year, according to data from LSEG, which excludes real estate and traditional corporate loans. The figure is up by more than a fifth from the same period a year ago and about $1bn more than all of 2021, which had been the previous post-financial crisis peak. The boom in complex — and often riskier — deals highlights how buoyant markets and persistent US economic strength are allowing bankers to sell more esoteric products to investors keen to lock in high fixed returns. Transactions this year have forged bonds that are backed by income tied to the revenues generated by spicy chicken wings, data centres and music catalogues. “We have seen standout years with relentless investor appetite and that is what is going on right now,” said Jay Steiner, who leads US asset-backed securities at Deutsche Bank. Wall Street has been hunting for new sources of offerings in ever more obscure corners of the market as demand for structured products has risen. Deals in recent weeks have been tied to franchisee fee revenue of the US restaurant chain Wingstop, oil sales from ExxonMobil-backed wells and the demand for computing power and space provided by data centre operator CloudHQ. Growth in structured deals has made some investors nervous that investment managers flush with cash are not vetting risk, derisively calling some insurance funds “programmatic buyers” for automatically snapping up deals with little scrutiny. Still, analysts say the size of the market is small enough to avoid creating systemic risk.

Structured finance has been a boon to Wall Street at a time when other parts of the investment banking business remain muted, with fees rebounding but still down from where they were a few years ago. Underwriting fees, as a percentage of deal size, for structured products tend to be higher than government bonds and plain-vanilla corporate debt. Such deals are also alluring to investors because they typically offer higher yields than traditional bonds while still locking in returns. Meanwhile, insurance companies and other professional investors have been seeking places to deploy the wave of assets coming from retirees and others seeking income-producing investments. Benjamin Fernandez, head of esoteric structured finance at Barclays, which led the Wingstop transaction and co-led the oil well deal, both of which closed on the same day in mid-November, said: “While this isn’t the first time we’ve wrapped up two deals in one day, I expect this to become more frequent as the esoteric universe expands.” Other recent deals have required investors to scrutinise the finances of US homeowners who have installed Tesla solar panels and the music catalogues of Shakira, Bon Jovi and Fleetwood Mac. Structured deals linked to more arcane corners of the market have already risen 50 per cent this year compared with all of 2023 to $63bn, according to JPMorgan Chase. A large share of the overall structured deals market is backed by consumer credit, such as auto and credit card loans. Default rates on such debt have risen as the Federal Reserve has lifted borrowing costs higher while remaining within historic norms. As a result, lending has continued to expand with investors eager to finance growth. And as baby boomers age, more are buying annuities or shifting assets into income-producing investments. That has driven insurers selling annuities, and other professional investors, to step up purchases of structured debt, according to Keith Ashton, co-head of alternative credit at investment group Ares Management. Demand among investors and insurers for structured finance has been so strong that extra returns they require to engage even in the riskiest portions of these deals rather than buying ultra-low-risk debt have tumbled this year, according to Peter Van Gelderen, a portfolio manager at TCW. He added that the clamour for risky slices of structured deals had been amplified by strong competition to purchase less risky “senior” tranches. “The bid for riskier positions is higher than it was at the beginning of the year,” he said. “But the demand for the senior paper is so strong. That’s what’s driving all the new issuance.”

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[–] JohnBrownsBussy2@hexbear.net 37 points 7 months ago* (last edited 7 months ago) (3 children)

Video of Luigi being brought into court:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W-PK65KvfX0

"Clearly [I'm a patsy?]. This is an insult to the intelligence of the American people and their lived experience."

[–] Leon_Grotsky@hexbear.net 37 points 7 months ago* (last edited 7 months ago)

It sounds more to me like he says "It's clearly (unjust?) (out of touch?)..." and an insult to the intelligence... etc.

E) Decided on "It's clearly unjust" after listening to it on 0.75 speed.

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[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 37 points 7 months ago

Brazilian Conservative Right Presidential candidate loses ally and political rights due to Bolsonaro.

Governor Ronaldo Caiado (União), Sandro Mabel (União) and Cláudia Lira (Avante), mayor-elect of Goiânia, were convicted by the Electoral Court of Goiás for abuse of political power. Their candidacy records were revoked and they were declared ineligible for 8 years.

The three were indicted for holding events at the Esmeraldas Palace (Goiás Governor Palace) with an electoral political character after the first round of the elections. The complaint was filed by the Electoral Prosecutor's Office and pointed to abuse of political power, which motivated the court's decision.

For now, the decision is provisional and does not prevent Mabel and his deputy from taking office, which is scheduled for January 2025. Mabel's defense said he was surprised by the conviction and denies any irregularities. Fines of up to R$60,000 were imposed.

The Liberal Party, Jair Bolsonaro's party, filed the lawsuit after its candidate was defeated in this year's municipal elections. And perhaps to remove a possible right-wing rival from the next elections.

[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 37 points 7 months ago

More people are indicted for attempting a coup d'état in Brazil.

The PF (Brazil's FBI) has indicted three more military personnel for attempting a coup: Aparecido Andrade Portela (reserve), Reginaldo Vieira de Abreu (colonel) and Rodrigo Bezerra de Azevedo (major). The total number of people indicted has now risen to 40. The charges include coup d'état and criminal organization

According to the PF, Portela brokered contacts between the Bolsonaro government and funders of actions in Mato Grosso do Sul. Abreu spread fake news about ballot boxes and tried to influence the Ministry of Defense. Bezerra took part in discussions about a plan to kidnap Minister Alexandre de Moraes.

Portela and Abreu remained silent in their testimonies, while Bezerra denied involvement. The case is moving forward in the STF (Supreme COurt) and expands the investigation into anti-democratic acts and the participation of military leaders.

[–] Coolkidbozzy@hexbear.net 37 points 7 months ago* (last edited 7 months ago) (3 children)

could israel be trying to conquer Damascus

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[–] plinky@hexbear.net 37 points 7 months ago (8 children)

Lmao, some reports that assad is in russia, they truly are dumbest motherfuckers

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[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 37 points 6 months ago

Brazilian President, Lula da Silva, appears walking in hospital after head surgery: 'I'm firm and strong'. The president was accompanied by a doctor and the first lady, Rosângela Silva, nicknamed Janja.

On Friday afternoon, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva posted a video in which he appears walking down the corridor of the Sírio-Libanês Hospital, in São Paulo, alongside one of the doctors and the first lady, Rosângela Silva, known as Janja. The images show a bandage on the president's head.

“I ask you to remain calm. I am firm and strong,” wrote the president in the message attached to the video. In the recording, he appears walking through the hospital corridors alongside neurosurgeon Marcos Stavale. This is the first image of the president since his surgery in the early hours of Tuesday morning. Lula also said that he is eating well and talking a lot. “Soon, I'll be ready to go home and keep working,” he posted.

The president left the ICU on Friday morning, after three days in hospital. The medical team expects him to leave hospital and return to Brasília at the beginning of next week.

Good news about Hexbear's favorite Brazilian Socdem

[–] plinky@hexbear.net 36 points 6 months ago

frenchies got new prime minister from the democrats (sic) party

[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 36 points 6 months ago (2 children)

General Braga Netto, the mastermind behind coup attempts against Lula da Silva, and possibly his own ally Jair Bolsonaro, is arrested in Rio de Janeiro. General Braga Netto [is the first four-star general to be arrested in Brazil's history and will be held at the Eastern Military Command. He will answer for:

  • Criminal association, aggravated by being a civil servant and taking advantage of his position.
  • Abolition of the democratic rule of law (coup d'état)
  • Attempting to depose by serious threat to constituted power

If sentenced to the maximum sentence, Braga Netto could be imprisoned for 33 years. The general was arrested today by the PF after complaints from Mauro Cid during his testimony in which he claimed that Braga Netto was coercing him and his father. General Braga Netto was arrested for coercion and obstruction of justice.

During Mauro Cid's testimony, the lieutenant colonel said that Braga Netto kept the cash to finance the coup plan in a wine container. Cid also said that Bolsonaro received daily reports from Braga Netto on the progress of the “Yellow Green Dagger” coup plot. It was said that after Mauro Cid's first interrogation, Braga Netto questioned Mauro Cid and forced him to practice his answers to try to get Braga Netto off the hook.

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[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 36 points 7 months ago

Lula will undergo a new surgery this Thursday morning.

The procedure will be a complement to the previous surgery and will be an “endovascular artery embolization procedure”. The medical bulletin states that Lula is well and without complications. On Wednesday 11th, the president did physiotherapy, walked around the ICU and received family members.

According to a medical bulletin released today, he is lucid, oriented and progressing well in the post-operative period. President Lula will undergo further surgery on Thursday to block the flow of blood to his brain.

Meanwhile, the dollar fell and the stock market rose. The Congress, under the control of the far-right, voted and approved the idea of the printed ballot (used to question elections, since the vote, even if it is in an electronic ballot box, is already printed) and a law that obliges the police to remove people who enter occupied land, even without a court order. Both laws are expected to be overturned by the Supreme Court due to their unconstitutionality. It is believed that the Far-Right know it will be vetoed and will use this to claim that they are being attacked by the Supreme Court.

Some news and combat footage from the Donbass and Kursk oblast.

Russian forces liberated the Kursk oblast settlement of Novoivanovka. In addition, Russian forces crossed the border and entered the Sumy oblast settlement of Vladimirovka (18+ combat footage included): https://southfront.press/russian-army-entered-sumy-region-threatens-ukrainian-forces-in-kursk-with-encirclement/

Russian forces liberated the Donetsk People’s Republic settlements of Shevchenko and Novotroitskoye (south and southwest of Kiev-occupied Krasnoarmeysk): https://southfront.press/military-situation-in-russian-kursk-region-and-on-ukrainian-frontlines-on-december-10-2024-maps-update/

Russian forces also drove Kiev regime troops out of the elevator area in the DPR's Kurakhovo: https://southfront.press/ukrainian-garrison-flees-from-kurakhovo/

Russian drone operators continue pounding Kiev regime forces (18+ footage): https://s5.cdnstatic.space/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/strikes-3.mp4?_=4

[–] Frogmanfromlake@hexbear.net 36 points 7 months ago (6 children)

I’m kind of interested to hear what news heads think of Ataturk and his legacy. Been reading about the history of Turkey and I find him to be a very interesting figure.

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