this post was submitted on 19 Feb 2025
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Odds of asteroid YR4 hitting Earth just went up again, reaching new high (globalnews.ca)
submitted 2 weeks ago by floofloof@lemmy.ca to c/space@lemmy.world
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[–] maegul@lemmy.ml 23 points 2 weeks ago (5 children)

From the article

In a new update, the space agency has increased the chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth, with the probability of impact rising to 3.1 per cent or one-in-32 odds of impact β€” the highest probability of a collision yet.

IE - 3%.

3% events happen all of the time!

The article stresses that this probability has been going up over the past year or so, which is likely neither here nor there, but I can totally understand how it’s alarming in a post-COVID world.

[–] midribbon_action@lemmy.blahaj.zone 12 points 2 weeks ago

Slightly more likely than rolling two sixes.

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