this post was submitted on 04 Dec 2024
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Yeah, I've long thought that weather forecasts are a perfect use case for AI. AI is great with complicated systems that are hard to model accurately but have lots of available data.
Current weather forecasts kinda suck. I try to schedule jobs around when it's going to rain, and have to frequently reschedule because rain forecasts aren't very accurate. I really hope we can see improvements.
You're better off looking at QPFs than regular forecasts.
But, if you're wanting something like "will there be rain at this GPS coordinate at this time", then under some conditions that is just impossible to predict. It's not a problem with the how clever the models are or a lack of data, the physics makes it legitimately random.
Ensemble forecasts are better yet, but you need to learn what they mean before using them. Not many people understand how to interpret probabilistic forecast data.
I thought QPFs are generated from ensemble forecasts?